My recent comments during a conversation among school technology folks trying to budget for computer replacement, speculating whether 5 or 7 years was the right cycle.
"At the exponential rate that technology is changing, I also think we must also be speaking in turns of "technologies" not specific pieces of technology and be planning for more exponential changes in technology - instead of speculating whether we should replace our desktops every 5 or every 7 years.
Looking back at Thomas Edison's prediction of a time when there would be a phonography in every home
and...
Thinking back at
Ray Kurzeil's prediction (1999 MIT Inventor of the year)
"just as the Industrial Revolution reshaped America at the dawn of the 20th century, the information revolution is resahping the world at the dawn of the 2st century.
The expontential growth of technology in the first two decades of the 20th century matched that of the entire 19th century.
The exponential growth of the technology in the first 5 years of the 21st century will invenitably inexorably, match that of teh entire 20th century."
Looking around the corner at the technology that teens predict will be obselete by 2015
http://mit.edu/invent/n-pressreleases/n-press-06index.html and
Looking ahead at the technology on the horizon (The Horizon Report:
http://wp.nmc.org/horizon2011/)
I'm so happy to be working in such a dynamic field as educational technology
--- from the lady who use to have $75 per machine in her budget for the annual cleaning and maintenance of the typewriters in my lab
